Scientific Prediction and Economics. A Philosophical and Methodological Analysis

Economics is perhaps the most closely related of all social sciences to the “hard” sciences. It integrally employs the processes of discovery, explanation, and prediction and combines them with an extensive analysis of data. In Scientific Prediction and Economics, Wenceslao J. Gonzalez explores the theoretical difficulty of using prediction to classify economics as a science. After providing a background on the role of prediction in science as a whole, Gonzalez employs the methodological framework of the social sciences to analyze if prediction in economics renders it as a scientific discipline. He views the use of rationality and empirical approaches to assess the epistemology and methodology of economic prediction, discerns the limits of prediction in economics, and outlines the interrelationship of prediction and prescription (policy, planning, practical measures, and so forth) as the key to future developments in the discipline. Gonzalez expands upon the theories of notable philosophers of science (including Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos) and economists (including Nobel Laureates Milton Friedman, John Hicks, James Buchanan, and Herbert A. Simon), to assemble an overarching statement on the role of prediction in science generally and its philosophical-methodological application in economics specifically. M.-M. V.